EU Carbon Price and CBAM: What to Track if You Sell to the EU

The price of an EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) allowance now sets the price of CBAM certificates, so it matters to any manufacturer exporting CBAM-covered goods to the EU. This article explains the link, the figures that are officially published, and what is only forecast. An earlier version of this article reported an allowance price of €62.40 in May 2026. I could not find support for that figure, and the official CBAM prices for 2026 are higher, so I removed it.

What the Official Prices Say

In 2026 the CBAM certificate price is the weighted average of the auction clearing prices of EU ETS allowances for the quarter. From 2027 the Commission will publish a price weekly. The market price on any given day can differ from these averages. The Q3 price was 9.4% above Q2, according to the same report. The Q4 price is due on 4 January 2027, and certificates can be bought through the common central platform from February 2027, according to that report. I could not find a reliable spot price for early October 2026, so check a live source before quoting one.

How the EU ETS Works

The EU ETS is a cap-and-trade system. The EU sets a cap on emissions from covered sectors, issues allowances up to that cap and lets companies trade them. The cap falls every year, by a little over 4% a year in the current phase (sources differ on the exact figure, between 4.2% and 4.3%). Allowances are removed from the market or added to it by the Market Stability Reserve, which has been under review in 2026.

Free allocation to industry is being reduced step by step, which is the other side of CBAM: as free allowances shrink, CBAM covers the carbon cost of imports. I did not confirm the year-by-year schedule, so check the legal text for the percentage that applies in a given year. ETS2, the separate system for buildings and road transport fuels, has been delayed to 2028.

What It Means for Exporters

CBAM currently applies to a defined list of goods: iron and steel, aluminium, cement, fertilisers, electricity and hydrogen. Textiles are not on the list. A textile factory is therefore not charged under CBAM for its own products, but it may buy inputs or energy, or supply customers who do, and its customers may ask for emissions data for other reasons.

For a covered product, the importer must buy certificates for the emissions embedded in the goods, less any allowance for free allocation and any carbon price already paid in the country of origin. When a supplier cannot give verified actual emissions data, the importer has to use default values, which the Commission has set with mark-ups of 10%, 20% and 30% in successive years (Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/2621). That is the practical reason suppliers measure: actual data can lower the cost to the customer.

A Worked Example, With Assumed Numbers

The figures below are assumptions to show the arithmetic, not data from a real plant, and they use €75 per tonne, close to the Q1 and Q2 2026 CBAM prices (Q3 was €82.32).

A real calculation has more steps, including free allocation adjustments and the carbon price paid abroad, so use it only to see how the price multiplies emissions.

What To Do With the Number

For a manufacturer with EU customers

• Check whether any of your products or inputs fall under a CBAM product code. If they do not, you are not directly charged, but customers may still ask for data.
• Measure emissions per product with a method that a verifier can check; default values with mark-ups are the fallback you want to avoid.
• Use the published quarterly CBAM price, and from 2027 the weekly price, when you show a customer the value of a reduction.
• Test any investment case at several prices, for example €60, €80 and €100, and do not rely on a forecast.
• Keep the carbon price you pay at home on record, since it can reduce the CBAM cost.
• Ask each EU customer which data they need and in what format before it is requested at short notice.

Frequently Asked Questions

References

European Commission, Price of CBAM certificates (taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu). SteelOrbis, EU CBAM certificate price rises to €82.32 for Q3 2026. Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/2621. Nista.io, The EU ETS Carbon Price in 2026. ABN AMRO, Carbon Market Strategist (December 2025). The cap reduction rate and the free allocation schedule differ between sources; confirm them in the legal text.